落叶松落叶病的生态控制技术研究

Primary Research on the Ecological Control of Larch Needle Cast

根据吉林省近千块长白落叶松人工林林分病情与１０个林分因子关系的标准地调查分析，推导出长白落叶松落叶病病情指数与其相关的林分生态因子──林分类型、密度、林龄、枝下高、土壤、地形的数学模型：ｙ＝１５＋２１Ｃ１１＋６Ｃ１２＋９Ｃ１３－２３Ｃ２１－１５Ｃ２２－Ｃ２３＋３Ｃ３１＋１９Ｃ３２＋１９Ｃ４１＋９Ｃ４２＋８Ｃ５１－１０Ｃ６１（磐石模型）；ｙ＝２１．０＋１６．５Ｃ１１＋２．９Ｃ１２＋４．９Ｃ１３－２２．６Ｃ２１－１５．０Ｃ２２－１．７Ｃ２３＋０．４Ｃ３１＋１５．８Ｃ３２＋１６．９Ｃ４１＋７．４Ｃ４２＋７．９Ｃ５１－９．５Ｃ６１（吉林模型）；其偏相关系数分别为：磐石模型：０．６０５、０．７２３、０．６３４、０．６２７、０．３２３、０．４２６，复相关系数０．９１９；吉林模型：０．６５７、０．７５、０．６９、０．６４、０．４２、０．４９，复相关系数０．９３１。用此两公式对应判对。对磐五县１９８７～１９９１年１４１块标准地判对率为７２．３％，对１９８７～１９９２年全省８２３块标准地的应用判对率为６７．４％。提出该病林分病情生态预测预报技术和造林营林措施为主的生态控制技术。

From 1986 to 1991,an intensive investigation on the disease index and ecolog-ical factors of larch needle cast was made in forest farms in Jilin Province.The data analysisof three hundred olots of larch plantations,Larix olegensis,revealed that the disease index oflarch needle cast has a lot to do with ecological factors. The ecological model of larch needlecast was thus established as follows :y=15+21C11+6C12+9C13-23C21-15C22-C23+3C31+19C32+19C41+9C42+8C51-10C61(PAN SHI Model)y=21+16. 5C11+2.9C12+4. 9C13-22.6C21-15C22-1.7C23+0.4C31+15. 8C32+16. 9C41+7.4C42+7.9C51-9.5C51(JI LIN Model)where y stands for forest disease index and C11～ C42 stands for ecological factors(level).Ac-cording to the investigation and analysis,the occurrence and development of larch needle castis the integrated result of different ecological factors over a long period of time. From themodels,forecasting technique and ecological control for larch needle cast by afforestationwere put forward.