山东半岛丘陵区典型流域降水对农业的影响分析

Precipitation and It's Impact on Agriculture of Typical Basin of Hilly Area in Shandong Peninsula

采用3S技术并根据1:250000地形图生成DEM,确定出大沽夹河流域。同时用空间内插法计算了流域对应的大气降水量,通过选择烟台市大沽夹河流域内农业产值和作物单产量等因子,采用滑动平均和相关分析,揭示了降水对农业的影响。结果表明,降水对产值具有累积效应,主要表现在牧业产值和渔业产值上,分别在2a和10a滑动平均相关性极显著;呈线性回归关系,相互之间有较高的置信度。同时揭示了降水与流域内作物单产量相关性不大,主要是由于人为活动通过修建水利措施,拦蓄大气降水、增加农用水资源的补给源,影响降水在单产量中的作用地位。并由此讨论了烟台市水资源可持续利用的对策。

This study used 1：250000 relief map to create DEM and made certain dagujia basin by using 3S techniques. 3S software such as Erdas 8.6, Arcview 3.3, and Arcinfo 8.2, was used as an interpretation tools. Due to sliding average and association analysis between precipitation and agricultural factors, such as agricultural production value, annual output. Results showed that： the duration of cumulative impacts of the precipitation on animal husbandry production value and fishery production value is significant correlation （at 0.01 level） and reached the maximum in the second year and tenth year, the association coefficients are R=O.593〉0.478=a 0.01t：5~ and R=0.768〉0.606=a 0.01o5~. There is higher confident degree between them by passed correlative coefficients checking. And found out that the impact of precipitation on annual agricultural outputs is short because of human activities, such as building water conservancy added water resources, Finally, this paper has discussed the countermeasure of continuable using on water resource in Yantai City.