产业结构变动对货币流通速度的影响——中国货币流通速度下降之谜

A New Monetary Velocity Model Based on Industrial Structure

文章运用协整分析、格兰杰因果检验和误差修正模型实证研究了中国产业结构变动与货币流通速度之间的动态关系以及“货币化假说”。实证分析结果显示货币化对货币流通速度的影响随着时间逐渐增强,但这并不能完全解释我国货币流通速度下降;产业结构变动才是影响我国货币流通速度下降的主要原因。通过误差修正模型发现我国狭义货币流通速度相对于产业结构变动的弹性为2.7,广义货币流通速度相对于产业结构变动的弹性为1.2。

In this paper, we employ the co-integration, Granger test and Error Correction Model （ECM） to augment monetarization hypothesis of the classical money demand function by considering the industrial composition factor. We find that the monetarization factor increasingly impacts the monetary velocity. It is not monetarization factor but industrial composition factor that can explain the decline of the monetary velocity. By the ECM analysis, the elasticities of the narrow and the broad monetary velocity which are caused by the industrial structure are 2. 7 and 1.2.