基于熵和FAHP的水资源可持续利用模糊综合评价模型

Entropy and FAHP based fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model of water resources sustaining utilization

水资源可持续利用综合评价是区域可持续发展综合分析与评价的核心技术之一,其难点是如何有效处理评价过程中存在的主观随意性、模糊性和随机性等不确定性问题。为此,基于综合集成的方法论,提出用基于遗传算法的改进模糊层次分析法(FAHP)确定各评价指标的权重,用理想区间法和相对隶属度理论处理不同评价样本隶属各评价标准区间的模糊性,用最大熵原理处理评价样本隶属各评价标准区间的随机性,通过上述方法的集成,建立了基于熵和FAHP的水资源可持续利用模糊综合评价新模型(EFAHP-FCEM),并用加速遗传算法优化该模型参数。EFAHP-FCEM在汉中盆地水资源可持续利用的应用结果表明:EFAHP-FCEM直接由评价指标模糊互补判断矩阵和评价标准样本数据驱动,把利用全部隶属度值信息进行计算的可持续利用相对等级值作为评价结果,可避免应用最大隶属度原则进行判断所可能导致的失真,提高了评价精度;EFAHP-FCEM是一种非参数评价方法,其数学物理概念明确,方法直观、通用,可在具有评价标准的各种资源环境综合评价中推广应用。

Evaluating water resources sustaining utilization system is a kernel technique in regional sustainable development comprehensive analysis and evaluation, its difficulty is how to resolve the uncertain problems such as subjectiveness, fuzziness and randomness existed in the evaluation process. For this purpose, on the basis of meta- synthesis methodology, an improved fuzzy analytic hierarchy process（FAHP） based on genetic algorithm is presented to determine the evaluation index weights, the ideal interval method and the relative membership degree theory are used to describe the fuzziness of evaluated samples belonged to evaluation standard intervals, the principle of maximum entropy is used to deal with the randomness, and then entropy and FAHP based fuzzy comprehensive evaluation new model of water resources sustaining utilization（EFAHP-FCEM） is established by means of integrating the above-mentioned methods. The model parameters of EFAHP-FCEM are optimized by using accelerating genetic algorithm. The result of EFAHP-FCEM successfully applied to evaluating water resources sustainable utilization of Hanzhong basin in Shanxi province of China shows that EFAHP-FCEM is directly driven by fuzzy complementary judgement matrix of evaluation indexes and the data series produced from evaluation of water resources sustaining utilization, that sustaining utilization relative grades computed by using all membership degrees information are regarded as evaluation results, which can avoid distorting by using maximum membership degree principle and can heighten evaluation precision, and as a nonparametric evaluation method with distinct concept of mathematics and physics, EFAHP-FCEM is visual, handy and universal, so EFAHP-FCEM can widely be applied to different regional resource and environment comprehensive evaluation.