货币政策对房价的调控能力

The Regulating Capacity of Monetary Policy to House Price

近年来针对房价问题的货币政策频繁出台。利用2003-2007年房价指数和货币政策变量的季度数据,关对我国货币政策对房价的调控能力分析表明,货币政策变量与房价指数有着长期稳定的关系,可以通过货币供应量与利率的调节来调控房价。脉冲响应函数显示,货币政策对房价的影响存在3￣4个月的滞后期。方差分解说明,货币政策对房价调控能力有限。相对而言,利率工具要优于货币数量工具,利率政策的效应随着时间的推延将逐渐显现。

In recent years a series of monetary polices have been formulated to curb the soaring house price. This paper, based on the quarterly data on house price index and variables of monetary policy during 2003-2007, analyzes the regulating capacity of monetary policy to house price. The conclusion is that there is a long term stable relationship between variables of monetary policy and house price index and therefore the house price can be regulated by adjusting money supply and interest rate. Impulse response function shows that there is a lag of three to four months before the monetary policy influences house price. Variance decomposition indicates that the regulating capacity of monetary policy to house price is limited. Comparatively speaking, interest rate is a better tool than money supply for the effect of interest rate will become more distinct as time goes by.