福建省生态足迹动态分析

Ecological footprint dynamic analysis of Fujian Province

对福建省2000-2004年生态足迹进行分析，结果表明2000年的人均生态足迹是1．3272hm^2，略高于全国平均水平，2004年增至1．7775hm^2，增长了33．9％，2000年的可利用的承载力是0．4052hm^2·cap^-1，低于全国平均水平，同时生态承载力在减少。2000年的万元GDP生态足迹是3．3857hm^2，到2004年减少到2．9364hm^2，说明福建省的能源利用效益逐渐提高。生态足迹多样性指数在增加，说明福建省各种资源的利用更趋于均衡，更加趋于稳定。生态经济发展能力在提高，特别是2002-2004年增幅更加明显。通过生态经济发展能力和人均GDP进行相关性分析，相关系数高达0．98，呈极显著性相关，说明福建省随着经济的发展，生态经济发展能力也在不断增长。并对福建省2005～2010年人均生态足迹和生态承载力进行预测，到2010年人均生态足迹将增长到2．4033hm^2，而人均生态承载力将下降到0．3926hm^2，人均生态赤字高达2．0108hm^2。表明福建省到2010年生态承载力处于高度的不可持续状态。最后对福建省目前存在的问题进行分析，提出解决对策。

The paper analyses the ecological footprint of Fujian from 2000 to 2004.The result shows that in 2000 the ecological footprint of per capita was 1.3272 hm^2, which was little higher than the national average level, in 2004 the value increased to 1. 7775 hm^2, increasing 33.9 %. The ecological carrying capacity of utilization in 2000 was 0.4052 hm^2·cap^- 1, which is lower than the national average level, at the same time, the ecological carrying capacity decreased. Ten-thousand Yuan GDP ecological footprint of Fujian in 2000 was 3.3857 hm^2, hut in 2004 the number decreased to 2.9364 hm^2, which indicated that energy resources utilization efficiency was increasing. The increase of ecological footprint diversity index indicates that energy resources use is more balanced and more stable. Ecological economy development capacity enhances, especially in 2002-2004, and increasing stage is more obvious. Through ecological economy development capacity and GDP per capita correlation analysis, the correlation is up to 0.98, which shows significant correlation. The result indicates that with the economy development, ecological economy development capacity continues to grow also. And the per capita of ecological footprint and ecological carrying capacity during 2005-2010 were forecasted. In 2010, the ecological footprint per capita will grow up to 2. 4033 hm^2, but the ecological carrying capacity per capita will drop to 0.3926 hm^2, and ecology deficit will be up to 2. 0108 hm^2, which indicates that the ecological carrying capacity in 2010 will he in highly unsustainahle. At last, the present problem of Fujian is analyzed, and the strategy is put forward also.