油田合理井数的经济界限确定

Economic Limit Determination of Rational Well Number of Oilfield,

利用灰色系统ＧＭ（２，１）预测模型以及逻辑斯特旋回预测模型，分别建立了累积产油量、井数、含水与时间的关系式，然后研究了采油成本随含水变化的规律，并根据盈亏平衡分析原理建立了利润与井数之间的数学模型，从而确定出合理井数的经济界限。通过实例测算了不同价格体系下的经济合理井数与经济极限井数，结果表明：本文所建立的确定合理井数经济界限的方法简单、实用，为油田后期的开发调整和开发规化编制提供了重要依据。

this paper uses prediction model of grey system and LOGISTIC to establish the relationships between cumulative oil preduction and time, wellnumbers and time, water cut and time respectively, to study the tendency of production costs with water cut, to establish mathematics model between profit and total well numbers by analysis of break even, and to get out economic limit of retional well numbers. One tract of some field was used to test the numbers of economic rational well and numbers of economic limit well under diffent price system this method can provide important information for oilfield development adjusting and desiging later, and it is simple and uesful to oilfield, and possesses the value of popularization and application.