沿海城市自然灾害脆弱性评价研究——以上海浦东新区为例

Vulnerability Assessment of Natural Disasters in Pudong District

沿海城市在全球发展中具有重要的战略地位,然而特殊的地理位置和高度集中的人口及财富也决定了其面临灾害具有较高的脆弱性,即同等灾害强度下,沿海城市遭遇自然灾害时的人口伤亡更多、经济损失更大。从灾害系统承灾体的角度,分析影响灾害脆弱性的基础设施、城市形态与结构和灾害管理体制等5个方面,顺应脆弱性评价定量化的趋势,依据一定的原则,不分灾种,面对区域和人群,选取代表性指标尝试构建了沿海城市自然灾害脆弱性的评价指标体系,利用AHP法对该区域相应指标的权重进行确定,建立了脆弱性模型,并在收集和标准化数据的基础上,以上海市浦东开发区为例进行了实证分析。结果证明,模拟结果与实际情况基本吻合,可以为沿海城市防灾减灾提供科学依据,有一定的参考价值。

Coastal cities possess an important position in the development of the world, but they have high risk in natural disasters because of special location and high-density population and fortune. Coastal cities will suffer much more when confronted hazards of the same intensity. From the angle of hazard-affected bodies in a disaster system, the paper will analyze the socioeconomic and factitious causes of the vulnerability in natural disasters from five points of view. According to the trend of quantification, we attempt to select representational indices to establish vulnerability assessment index systems in natural disasters about area and people by some principles whatever hazards they are confronted. After calculating the index weights with AHP method, this paper sets up a vulnerability assessment model of multiple natural disasters about coastal cities. Finally, after collecting and normalizing the data, the paper takes Pudong district as a case to prove the validity of the model. The result reveals the model fits for coastal cities and is similar to.the reality. The result is valuable to provide scientific foundation for coastal cities to deal with disasters.