基于时序主成分分析的重庆市可持续发展实证研究

Empirical Research of Sustainable Development of Chongqing City Based on Times Series Analysis & PCA

基于"可持续发展"的内涵,文中构建了重庆市可持续发展指标体系,并应用时序主成分分析法对重庆市1997-2004年可持续发展状况进行了定量研究。结果表明:重庆市可持续发展综合评分指数从1997年的-1.49逐步上升到2003年的1.04,2004年下降为1.00;可持续发展的协调性在1997-1999年间基本没有多大变化并处在较低水平,在2000-2003年逐年增强,2003年后有所下降;重庆市可持续发展综合评分指数与各子系统评分指数之间的关系可用线性方程F=0.572F1+0.455F2+0.343F3表征。重庆市今后的发展决策应将其经济效益放在首要位置,并兼顾发展过程中的公平性问题,其次是要努力实现资源高效利用和生态环境有效保护以提高可持续发展的协调性。

Based on the connotation of ＂sustainable development＂, we constructed, in this study, the sustainable development index system of Chongqing city, and studied quantitatively the sustainable development state of Chongqing city from the year of 1997 - 2004 by means of times series analysis ＆ PCA. The results showed that the comprehensive score of sustainable development of Chongqing city increased gradually from -1.49 in 1997 to 1.04 in 2003 and decreased to 1.00 in 2004; the coordination of economic sustainable development from1997 to 1999 did not change very much and was at a relatively low level, but it improved steadily from 2000 to 2003 and decreased thereafter; the relationship between the comprehensive score and partial scores could be described using the linear equation F= 0. 572F1 ＋.0 455F2 ＋ 0. 343F3 ; greatest attention in decision-making should be attached to the economic benefits of development, concurrently to the social equity problem in the development process. And we should strive to realize the efficient use of resources and ecological environmental protection so as to improve the coordination of sustainable development.