现代区域开发的矿产资源需求生命周期研究及意义

MINERAL LIFE CYCLE CURVE AND ITS IMPLICATION IN REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT

矿产资源是社会经济发展的重要物质基础。受社会经济和科学技术发展的限制，各类矿产资源的需求存在着从初始、增长、停滞和衰落的周期性变化以及明显的空间分布差异。现代区域开发中，这种周期性变化不仅对整个社会生产结构的演进速度，而且对重大基础设施的基本走向、工业生产布局的主要特点。

Regional development in the modern world is dependent to a great extent on the development of mineral resources. For minerals, regularities in the historical patterns of demand for those commodities permit the description of a lifecycle of mineral consumption. Many evidences support the fact that the curve shape of such a lifecycle is determined by the changing patterns of three causes regional economic structure, technological advantages and mineral substitution. Basically, such a lifecycle has two concepts. One can be defined as the time series of long run mineral demand following an invert U shape when plotted against increasing per capita GDP or income. The other can be described as the spatial organization disaggregated by developing countries, moderately developed countries and developed countries in responding to their own consumption behaviors based on a classification of old, young and new minerals. As a key factor in regional development, the mineral lifecycle has grat influences on changing patterns of industrial location, spatial organizations of urban growth, constructions of regional infrastructure and standards of environmental protection. For developing countries, particularly the large ones, the implications of mineral lifecycle and be deduced as follows: 1. An expending domestic and international mineral market will be the fundamental force in speeding up regional development when a shift in overall economic structure away from agriculture occurs; 2. In order to meet an increasing domestic need, national development stategy should center on expanding the exploitation of old minerals rather than young and new ones; 3. It is also important to implement a policy of family planning for releasing the great pressure from the growth of high mineral consumption activities, such as build basic infrastructure and heavy industries; 4. Mineral import will play an important role in regional development when economic structure is turning to less mineral intensive activities, such as manufacture and services, and conflicts beween resources use is becoming more seriously; 5. The larger population a developing country has ,the greater potential mineral market it will have, and the longer span of mineral lifecycle it will be.