房地产价格波动对货币政策传导的作用研究

A Study on the Effect of House Price on the Monetary Policy Transmission

利用1999～2006年的季度数据,运用SVAR模型对我国房地产价格波动在货币政策传导中的作用进行的分析表明,我国房地产价格的财富效应较弱,给定房地产价格1%的正向冲击,消费只上升0.002%,投资效应较强,投资上升0.1%。房地产价格波动在货币政策传导中的作用比较明显,在货币政策对消费和投资的影响中的贡献分别为10%和6.7%。

This paper estimated a SVAR model to investigate the role played by house prices in the transmission mechanism of monetary policy by using the quarterly data of 1999 - 2006. The results indicate that the wealth effect of the house price is weak while the investment effect is stronger. Given the house price rise 1%, the consumption increases only by 0. 002 % while the investment increase by 0.1%. The house price has a notable effect on the monetary policy transmission, 10 % to consumption and 6.7 % to investment.