宁夏硒砂瓜产量动态预测

A Study on Dynamic Yield Prediction for Watermelon Growing on Gravel-covered Land in Ningxia

通过对产量与各生育阶段气象要素的相关分析,研究宁夏中卫环香山地区气候条件对硒砂瓜产量的影响,建立产量动态预报模式。结果表明:降水是影响宁夏硒砂瓜生长的主要因素,播种前及全生育期降水量对产量的增减起着决定性的作用;各气象因子对硒砂瓜的影响主要集中在苗期和伸蔓膨瓜期,其中降水、平均相对湿度、平均风速的影响较显著。一定范围内,降水越多产量越高,平均最高气温越高、空气湿度越小、风速越大,硒砂瓜产量越低。

Based on the correlation analysis between the watermelon yield and meteorological variables at the different growing stages of the watermelon growing on gravel-covered land, the influence of climate on the yield of watermelon in the Xiangshan Mountain Areas of the Zhongwei City, Ningxia was investigated. A dynamic prediction model for watermelon yield was established. The results showed that the precipitation was the main factor which affected the growth of the watermelon growing on gravel-covered land. The precipitation both during the pre-seeding period and the whole growing season played a final role in determining the yield of watermelon. The vine stretch and melon inflation stages were the sensitive periods. The precipitation, mean relatively and mean wind speed significantly affected the watermelon yields. To some extents, the yield of the watermelon increased with the increase of the precipitation, while the watermelon yields decreased with the increase of the mean maximum temperature and wind speed, but with the decrease of the relative humidity.