摘要
目的探讨人禽流感大流行时天津市内六个区可能的发病情况。方法以天津市内六个区常住登记人口383万为研究对象,其中0~18岁者32.28万,18~64岁者308.94万,64岁以上者41.78万。采用美国疾病预防控制中心的FluAid2.0软件进行感染结局模拟。结果高危人群组死亡率、住院率均比同年龄组的非高危人群组高8~10倍;0-18岁组的就诊率最高。高年龄组死亡率、住院率均比其他年龄组高。高危人群组中低年龄组就诊率最高。高危人群疫苗接种数大约占总接种疫苗数的45.9%。结论高年龄组人群容易被感染人禽流感,疫苗接种应重点关注高危人群。
Objective To estimate the potential of epidemiological situation of human infection with highly pathogenic avian influenza in Tianjin. Methods A simulation study of human infection with highly pathogenic avian influenza during pandemic was conducted on 3.83 million residents in 6 districts of Tianjin, 322.8 thousand aged 0-181 3.0894 million aged 19- 64, and 417.8 thousand aged 〉= 65 by using the software FluAid2.0 developed by the Centers for Diseases Control and Prevention, USA. Results The mortality ratio and hospitalization rate of different age subgroups under the high risk group were 8-10 times as high as those of the corresponding age subgroups under the non-high risk group. The mortality ratio and hospitalization rate of the older persons were both higher than those of the other age subgroups in both high risk and non-high risk groups. The outpatient visit ratio was the highest in the low-age subgroup in the high risk group. The number of high risk persons who had received vaccination accounted for 45.9% of the whole number of persons receiving vaccination. Conclusion The persons with high risk are more prone to human highly pathogenic avian influenza, and are in urgent need of vaccination.
出处
《中国急救复苏与灾害医学杂志》
2009年第5期281-284,共4页
China Journal of Emergency Resuscitation and Disaster Medicine
基金
武警总部级科研课题项目(WKH2006-10)
关键词
人禽流感
流行
感染
Human avian influenza
Pandemic
Infection