基于TEI@I方法论的香港集装箱吞吐量预测方法被引量：19

Forecasting the Container Throughput of Hong Kong through TEI@I

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摘要本文以汪寿阳(2004)提出的TEI@I方法论为指导,提出了香港集装箱吞吐量预测的一种研究框架。采用季节AR IMA和VAR等计量经济模型、径向基神经网络技术,以及不规则事件的量化方法,建立了一个香港集装箱吞吐量的综合集成预测模型。数据实证显示这种预测模型具有较好的预测精度和稳健性。此外,通过VAR模型的建立和G ranger因果检验,指出沿海港口的发展对香港有重要的影响,香港港口发展应该注意区域竞争和协作问题。 Based on the TEI@I methodology proposed by Wang （2004）, a forecasting framework about Hong Kong＇s container throughput is proposed in this paper. Applying Seasonal-ARIMA model, VAR model, RBF neural network technology and quantitative method with irregular events, we build an integrated forecasting model for Hong Kong＇ s container throughput. Empirical analysis shows that it performs fairly well in both precision and stability. Furthermore, after building VAR model and performing the Granger test, we observe that the development of coastal ports has a significant influence on Hong to regional competition and collaboration. Kong, and thus we suggest that attention should be paid

作者田歆曹志刚骆家伟鲍勤陆凤彬汪寿阳

机构地区中国科学院研究生院管理学院中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院中国科学院成都计算机应用研究所

出处《运筹与管理》 CSCD 北大核心 2009年第4期82-89,共8页 Operations Research and Management Science

基金国家自然科学创新研究群体基金资助项目(70221001)

关键词数量经济学基于TEI@I方法论预测人工神经网络区域竞争集装箱吞吐量 quantitative economics forecasting with TEI@ competition container throughput I methodology artificial neural network regional

分类号 F272.1 [经济管理—企业管理]

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