ANP法在装备研制项目风险评估中的应用

Application of analytic network process in equipments development project risk evaluation

在对AHP和ANP原理进行分析的基础上,针对装备研制项目中风险因素相互影响的特点,探讨了ANP在装备研制项目风险评估中的应用,对如何应用ANP进行型号研制项目的风险评估及决策进行了分析。在风险因素重要度排序的ANP结构中,以风险发生概率、风险损失和风险的不可控制性作为评价准则;在评估系统总风险的ANP结构中,以时间、费用和范围作为评价准则。最后,对ANP的算法进行了解释。该评估方法在项目风险评估中具有较强的实际应用价值。

Based on the analysis of analytic hierarchy process（AHP） and analytic network process（ANP） model, the present paper intends to explore the application of analytic network process model in equipments development project risk evaluation with a focus on the features that the equipments development project risk factors will influence each other, constructs the analytic network process model and make risk evaluation and decision of the equipment development project. In the analytic network process structure where the risk factors are arranged according to their importance, the evaluation principle are taken based on the risk probability, risk loss and risk uncontrollability in an analytic network process configuration; for evaluating the total risk of a system, another analytic network process configuration is also given by considering three rules of time, expenses and range. Finally, the arithmetic of analytic network process model is explained. The application of analytic network process model can be widely used in the project risk evaluation.