基于灰色动态模型群的需水预测研究

Prediction of Water Demand Based on the Gray Dynamic Model Group

依据灰色系统理论,构造了一个由5个GM(1,1)模型组成的灰色动态模型群,并运用该模型对福建省泉州市用水量变化趋势进行了预测分析。研究表明,灰色动态模型群能够充分利用近期用水量信息预测未来用水量变化趋势;以模型群统计平均值作为最终预测值,避免了单一灰色模型容易利用不稳定信息的缺陷,使得预测精度更加准确,预测结果更为可信。

A gray dynamic model group made up of 5 simple gray models is put forward. Then the model group is used to predict the trend of water consumption in Quanzhou , Fujian Province. The result shows that the gray dynamic model group can make full use of the recent information about water consumption to predict the future trend of water consumption, and that the prediction result stemming from gray dynamic model group is more accurate and reliable than that of a simple gray model.