影响人造板产量增长之因素的实证分析

An Empirical Analysis of the Factors Effecting the Growth of Wood-based Panel Production

从众多指标中筛选出一些具有代表性的指标,选取出1996—2006年的相关数据。通过采用灰色关联度分析法研究影响人造板产量的相关因素,从所建立的灰色关联度模型中得出:对人造板产业增长起主要作用的是家具的出口量、国内生产总值、人造板出口量,且原木的进口量与人造板产量的相关度远大于本国木材产量对人造板产量的相关度。同时运用GM(0,N)预测方法检验了所建立的灰色关联度模型的合理性。根据灰色关联度的分析得出的结论为:国内生产总值(GDP)是影响我国人造板产量最主要的因素;我国人造板产业为出口导向型产业;我国人造板产量的大幅增长得益于原木的大量进口。

Some representative indicators are selected, and select out the relevant data from 1996 to 2006. Using gray correlation analysis, it analyses the impact factors of wood-based panel production , from the established model of gray correlation degree, it obtains the bellows： the wood-based panel industry will grow to play a major role in the furniture export volume, gross domestic product, artificial plate export volume and the import of timber and wood-based panel production in correlation is much larger than their timber production in correlation to the wood-based panel production. At the same time, it tested the forecasting method established is reasonable by using the gray correlation model. According to the gray correlation analysis, made the conclusion that gross domestic product （GDP） is the most important factor which impacts wood-based panel production of China. Our wood-based panel industry is the export-oriented industry; the substantial growth of wood-based panel production of China due to importing large quantities of logs.