复杂网络上的A(H1N1)型流感传播模型研究

Study of influenza A(H1N1) spreading model on complex networks

研究2009年我国A(H1N1)型流感大流行的病毒传播规律以及预防控制策略,发展复杂网络上的传播动力学理论,以提高应对类似甲流的、突发的世界公共卫生危机的能力。建立基于复杂网络的小世界效应和无标度特性的SIRD病毒传播模型,采用中国疾病预防控制中心的甲流传播数据,选择AnyLogic仿真平台对一个中等规模城市的甲流传播进行仿真实验。仿真数据表明:学校停课、限制人口自由流动、扩大疑似病例的处理范围、接种疫苗等是控制疫情大爆发的有效措施,并存在控制强度的临界值。

The paper probes into the virus spreading law and prevention and control strategies of 2009 influenza A（H1N1） pandemic in China, and improves spreading dynamic theory on complex networks to enhance the ability to cope with world public health emergencies like influenza A（H1N1 ）.The SIRD virus spreading model is built based on small world effect and scale free nature on complex networks, data are adopted from China Centers for Disease Control and Prevention,and influenza A（H1N1） spreading simulation experiments are made in a medium-sized city by using AnyLogic simulation platform.The simulation data show that effective measures to control epidemic outbreak are to close schools, to limit population flowing, to vaccinate and to expand the treatment range of suspected cases,and there does exist control intensity threshold