中国农村家庭脆弱性的测量与分解

Measurement and Decomposition of Household's Vulnerability in Rural China

在理论层面上,本文在效用理论基础上对脆弱性进行了定义并对其分解以反映消费的不平等性和波动性。在实证分析层面上,本文使用CFPS(Chinese Family Panel Studies)数据对中国农村家庭脆弱性进行量化与分解。量化结果表明多数农村家庭是脆弱的;分解结果发现相对于村间不平等,村内不平等是脆弱性的主要组成部分。家庭脆弱性及五个分解部分对家庭特征集合变量的OLS回归结果表明:增加农村家庭收入是降低其脆弱性最有效的手段;提高劳动力平均受教育水平能够有效降低家庭脆弱性,但大学教育支出会显著提高家庭的脆弱性水平,这较好地解释了目前出现的农村籍高中生弃考大学这一现象;新型农村合作医疗和社会保险能有效降低农村家庭脆弱性;社会资本、更大的家庭规模和更高的劳动力占比有利于降低家庭脆弱性,这能较好地解释中国农村家庭频繁的送礼活动以及倾向于组建大家庭的现象。

Vulnerability can combine inequality with volatility of household＇s consumption to reflect household＇s welfare level.Based on utility theory,this paper discusses the vulnerability definition and decomposes it to investigate inequality and volatility of household＇s consumption.We use CFPS data to analyze household＇s vulnerability in rural China.The results show that the majority of rural households are vulnerable,and comparing with the inter-village inequality,intra-village inequality is the main source of vulnerability.We also find that increasing rural household＇s income is the most effective method to decrease its vulnerability.Enhancing average educational level of household＇s labors can effectively reduce it,but expenditure on higher education can significantly increase it.The new rural cooperative medical system and social insurance are capable of decreasing it to a large extent.Social capital,family size and a higher labor force ratio are conductive to decreasing it,which can effectively explain why households in rural China tend to be big ones,and frequent ceremonial activities among relatives and friends.