V/S和Mann-Kendall相结合的方法在洪涝灾情分析中的应用

Application of the combination of V/S and Mann-Kendall method in flood disaster analysis

【目的】将V/S分析法引入到洪涝灾害面积序列的长记忆性研究,为洪涝灾害的预测和防治提供参考。【方法】以洞庭湖1949-1998年50年的洪涝灾害面积序列为研究对象,采用V/S分析法计算其Hurst指数,并结合其Mann-Kendall趋势分析洪涝灾害面积序列未来的变化趋势。【结果】20世纪70年代以来洞庭湖区的洪灾面积下降趋势明显,90年代以后涝灾面积上升趋势显著,洞庭湖洪涝灾害时间序列V/S分析的Hurst指数均大于0.5,表明洪涝灾害面积序列的变化趋势在未来将持续。【结论】V/S分析是一种有效的趋势预测方法。将V/S分析法与Mann-Kendall相结合的方法能够分析洪涝灾害时间序列未来的变化趋势,是一种有效的未来趋势预测方法。

【Objective】 The flood disaster area series of long memory study which includes V/S analysis method can provide reference to flood disaster prediction and prevention.【Method】 The V/S analysis method calculates the Hurst exponent of floods time series,and analyzes the change tendency characteristic of flood area series with Mann-Kendall in the future.【Result】 The flood area decreased significantly since the 1970s floods in the Dongting Lake area,and the water Logging area was a significant trend of increase after the 1990s.The Hurst exponent of the lake floods t time series is greater than 0.5 by V/S analysis,indicating that the trend of flood and waterlogging disaster series area will continue in the future.【Conclusion】 V/S analysis is a robust effective fractal trend forecast approach.The method of the combination of V/S and Mann-Kendall can anaiyze the future trend characteristic of flood area series,it is a robust effective future trend forecast approach.