对日本9级地震的中期预测及其依据

THE MODERATE-TERM PREDICTION FOR M_w 9.0 EARTHQUAKE IN JAPAN AND ITS SCIENTIFIC BACKGROUND

对2011年3月11日发生在日本的9级大地震所做出的中期预测进行小结,并对所提出预测意见及其依据做了简要论述。预测地区在日本南部、台湾以及菲律宾一带;预测震级为8～8.3级;预测时间是今后几年;预测依据是青藏滇缅印尼歹字型构造体系。预测地震三要素与日本9级大地震三要素的对比结果表明,这一中期预测是基本正确的。

In this paper,the author summarized the moderate-term prediction about the super-great earthquake occurred in the sea off the east coast of Honshu,Japan on March 11,2011,and discussed the predicting criteria.The predicted areas were defined to south Japan and other two areas.The predicted earthquake magnitude was 8.0 to 8.3.The moderate-term prediction was based on the tectonic system controlled by Qinhai-Tibet-Yunnan-Burma-Indonesian eta-type tectonic series.The comparison of prediction result to the occurrence of Mw 9.0 earthquake in Japan indicates that the prediction is basically correct.