技术标准更迭与扩散Notron模型与实证研究

The Notron Model of Diffusion and Substitution for Successive Generations of Technological Standards

构建技术标准更迭与扩散Norton模型,并以日本的PDC标准和WCDMA标准更迭为样本进行实证检验,揭示促进技术更迭和新标准扩散的因素与途径。结论显示,在WCDMA标准产业化过程中,用户感受、用户与用户之间的关于WCDMA标准的沟通和理解是影响其扩散的重要因素,这也是较之于PDC标准,WCDMA标准扩散较为显著的进步。对于探索全面促进中国3G标准产业化和自主技术标准创新途径具有重要启示和政策含义。

The coexistence of multiple generations of mobile communication technological standards makes profound changes undergoing in telecom industry and its competition pattern. The notron model of diffusion and substitution for successive generations of technological stand- ards is built in the paper, then the factors and ways promoting the upgrade of technology and new standard diffusion based on the sample from the Japan＇s PDC standard and WCDMA standard has been analyzed. The findings prove that the feeling of customers, the communication and under- standing about WCDMA standard among customers are the important factors affecting WCDMA standard diffusion in standard industrialization process, and it is also a remarkable step for WCD- MA standard diffusion compared with PDC standard, which has important enlightenments and policy implications to explore the ways enhancing TD-SCDMA standard industrialization and in- novation of independent technological standard.