基于ZIP模型和Logistic模型估计的顾客满意度、口碑推荐和新顾客购买决策关系研究

The Linkage between Customer Satisfaction,Word-of-mouth Referrals and New Customer Purchasing Decision Based on ZIP Model and Logistic Model

本文通过问卷调查数据,检验了顾客满意度对口碑推荐进而对新客户购买决策的影响,模型中同时考虑了产品涉入度和情感承诺的调节作用以及顾客交流特征(口碑传播者的专业性、关系强度、感知风险)对新客户购买决策的影响。结果表明:顾客满意度对口碑推荐有显著的正向影响;口碑推荐对新客户购买决策有显著的正向影响;产品涉入度在顾客满意度和口碑推荐的关系中起着显著的正向调节作用,但情感承诺的调节作用不明显;口碑传播者的专业性以及关系强度对新客户购买决策有显著的正向影响,感知风险的影响不显著。同时本文通过计算口碑推荐数量和口碑转换概率从而预测出基于口碑推荐方式获取新顾客数量。

Based on the questionnaire, the paper analyzes the functional linkage between customer satisfaction, word-of- mouth referrals and new customer purchasing decision, in which product involvement and affective commitment are the moderators of the effects of satisfaction on word-of-mouth referrals and communicator characteristics （ sender＇ s expertise, tie＇strength and perceived risk） influence new customer purchasing decision. The result shows that, firstly, customer satisfaction are significantly positive correlated with word-of-mouth referrals. Secondly, word-of-mouth referrals have a significantly positive effect on new customer purchasing decisions. Thirdly, product involvement has a positive moderating effect on the relationship between customer satisfaction and word-of-mouth referrals, but affective commitment is not. Finally, sender＇ s expertise and tie strength have significantly positive effect on new customer purchasing decisions, but the effect of perceived risk is not significant. The paper also predicts the number of new customers acquired based on word-of-mouth referrals by calculating the number and the conversion rate of word-of-mouth referrals.