我国“十二·五”时期省级碳强度约束指标的效率分配——基于ZSG环境生产技术的研究

China's Carbon Intensity Constraint Efficiency Allocation Research During "12·5" Period——Based on ZSG Environmental Production Technology

我国政府已明确"截止2015年末,我国单位国内生产总值二氧化碳排放(碳强度)要比2010年下降17%"的减排目标,而目前学术界缺乏将国家制定的碳强度约束指标进行省级分解的系统考量。因此,制定科学的碳强度约束指标分配体系是亟须解决的现实问题。本文提出基于"零和收益"思想的环境生产技术(ZSG环境生产技术)的碳排放分配模型,将"十二·五"时期省级碳强度约束指标进行效率分配。研究结果表明,使用ZSG环境生产技术模型对碳排放进行效率分配后,各省区的投入—产出指标同时处于ZSG前沿面上,实现经济指标、能源指标和环境指标的整体帕累托最优;"十二·五"时期各省区的碳强度约束指标大相径庭,部分省区未来需要下降的幅度超过17%的国家平均标准,面临形势较为严峻的低碳转型之路。

In this paper, we will use environmental production technology and the ZSG - DEA method organi- cally, put forward ZSG environmental production technology of CO2 emissions allocation model aiming at overall technical efficiency maximization of all provinces, estimate China provinces＇ CO2 emissions for the year 2011 2015, perform ZSG efficiency allocation carbon intensity for every province during ＂12·5＂ period, compare the- carbon intensity constraints results between the distribution mechanism of national administration and ZSG environ- mental production technology distribution mechanism, and discuss of various provinces＇ low carbon development path of ＂12 ~ 5＂ period. In the model of this paper, combined with Fare et al. （1989）and Zhou and Ang（2008） corresponding research foundation on Environment Production Technology, and Gomes and Lins （2008）on the ZSG - DEA method, in view of the shortcomings of the existing research on variable distribution, we put forward the ZSG Environment Production Technology method, this method is applied in undesirable output-carbon dioxide emissions allocation research, so as to solve the non-radial carbon dioxide emissions efficiency distribution, fill the blank in the fields of DEA method in distribution research. The empirical results of the study show that, first of all, we forecast China ＂12 ~ 5＂ period＇s（ the year from 2011to 2015 ）annual amounts of energy consumption, population, capital stock, gross domestic product（GDP） and carbon dioxide emissions reasonably. Through the ZSG Environment Production Technologies for CO2emissions allo- cation model calculation and the efficiency allocation amounts of all provinces CO2 emissions, although ZSG emis- sions and forecasted emissions of every province is different, some increases and some decreases（ for the year 2015, Shanxi province should reduce 14. 44 million tons CO2 emissions theoretically）, but total CO2 emissions amount re- mains unchanged, all provinces are on the ZSG-DEA efficiency frontier, achieving ＂overall Pareto Optimality＂ ; Secondly, based on ZSG Environmental Production Technology distribution amounts, we compare with the results of carbon intensity constraints between distribution mechanism of state administration and ZSG efficiency allocation, find that the two distribution mechanism have great difference （the most obvious difference is 11.89% in Hainan province）, reflecting that the state administration distribution mechanism pays attention to equilibrium and econom- ic development, this mechanism focuses on fairness. On the other hand, ZSG Environmental Production Technology allocation mechanism shows the efficiency trend;Finally, according to the amounts of ZSG carbon intensity con- straints and GDP in the year 2015, 30 provinces will be divided into four types areas, area I contains only one provinces（ Sichuan province）, area II contains 6 provinces, area III contains 10 provinces, area IV contains 13 provinces which bear more economic development and environment protection pressure. Considering the different provinces＇ resources endowment, industrial structure and energy consumption structure are different, every prov- ince government should make efforts to areas I （relative lower carbon intensity constraints, relative higher GDP） ~ according to their respective regional characteristics, so as to realize the sustainable development of low carbon transformation successfully, although every province＇s development path is not identical. The policy implications of this article contain several aspects. First of all, in the China ＂12 ~ 5＂ regional car- bon intensity constraints allocation, the central government must respect history and reality of all the provinces, ful- lyconsider the fairness and efficiency in distribution mechanism, objectively analyze bottleneck and obstacles of the provinces low carbon transformation and development in the current stage. Second, although the state administrative distribution mechanism and ZSG Environmental Production Technology distribution mechanismhave different policy implications, the difficulty of implementation is different, but all provinces can not only reach the basic standard only, but also take the carbon intensity constraints as a low carbon economy transformation spur in necessary and correct attitude. Finally, in the ＂12 ~ 5＂ period and even before the year 2020, the provincial government should make feasible regional economic policy and industrial policy, so as to doresponse to the call of the central govern- ment, combine the overall interests of central and regional interests effectively, formulate the diversity of low carbon path in order to achieve the carbon intensity constraint.