基于多项logit模型的城市公共自行车租借需求预测模型

A Model Development of Public Bicycle Rental Demand Based on Multinomial Logit

将城市公共自行车作为一种出行方式,建立了不同交通方式的效用函数,基于多项logit模型,测算得到公共自行车的分担率.以未来年居民出行OD为基础,结合公共自行车分担率,测算得出公共自行车的租借需求,并结合公共自行车和停车桩的周转率最终得到公共自行车以及停车桩的总规模.以西安某新城为案例,采用所提出的方法对公共自行车以及停车桩的总规模进行预测,结果表明方法简单高效,便于应用.

Based on a public bicycle travel method, the utility functions of different models were established, and the sharing ratio of public bicycles was calculated using a multinomial logit model. Combining the sharing ratio and the residents travel OD matrix, the public bicycle rental demand was obtained, and the total size of the public bicycle and the parking pile were determined by considering the bicycle turnovers. Take a new city area of Xi＇an,the total number of public bicycles and the parking piles are forecast by the proposed model,which proves that the model is simple, efficient and feasible.