我国农村金融作用农村经济的路径与实效——基于农村金融运行效率的实证分析

Path and Effect of China’s Rural Finance on Rural Economy——An Empirical Test Based on the Operation Efficiency of Rural Finance

农村金融通过影响资本的边际生产率、影响储蓄率和影响储蓄向投资的转化效率对农村经济发展产生作用,基于内生增长模型和四维向量自回归模型对1978—2010年我国农村金融运行效率和农村经济发展的实证分析表明:我国农村金融与农村经济发展存在着长期稳定的均衡关系,农村储蓄—投资转化率与农村经济发展正相关;农村金融相关比率是农村经济发展的格兰杰原因,并对农村经济发展产生显著的正向冲击作用,而农村储蓄—投资转化率、农村储蓄率对农村经济发展产生负向冲击。因此,我国应在健全农村金融法规制度,完善农村金融市场体系的基础上,努力提高农村储蓄—投资转化速度和农村金融相关比率,增加农村金融机构的贷款数量和质量,培育农村中小型金融机构和农村非正式金融机构,以支持和促进农村经济发展。

Rural finance plays a role in rural economic development through affecting marginal productivity of capital,affecting savings rate and affecting the transformation efficiency of savings into investment,based on the endogenous growth model and four-dimension vector autoregression model,the empirical analysis of rural finance operation efficiency and rural economic development of China during 1978—2010 shows that there is a long-run stable equilibrium relation between China＇s rural finance and rural economic development,that there is a positive relation between the transformation rate of rural savings-investment and rural economic development,that the rate of rural finance correlation is Granger cause of rural economic development and produces significantly positive impact on rural economic development,however,the transformation rate of rural savings-investment and rural savings ratio have negative impact on rural economic development.Thus,China should studiously raise the transformation rate of rural savings-investment and rural finance correlation rate based on perfecting rural laws and regulations of rural finance and completing rural finance market system and cultivate rural small and medium-sized finance institutions and rural informal finance institutions to support and boost rural economic development.