“福利赶超”、政府失灵与经济增长停滞——“中等收入陷阱”拉美教训的再解释

"Welfare Catch-up",Government Malfunction and Economic Stagnation

拉丁美洲国家经济增长停滞的原因可能是这些国家政府在经济发展中角色的失灵,主要表现为政府公共支出结构中消费性公共支出不合时宜地超越经济发展阶段,称之为"福利赶超"。严重收入和经济社会不平等可能是主导因素,部门和阶层之间的对立和割裂加剧了社会冲突,进而吸附绝大部分社会公共支出到非生产性领域。制度改革迟滞或缺失导致经济发展陷入要素市场机制提高要素使用效率和收入平均分配之间的矛盾,这种两难冲突恶化了经济政策的制定,使得经济发展陷入"拉美陷阱"或"中等收入陷阱"。

Based on the economic history of Latin America,the paper proposes a ＂middle income trap＂ hypothesis： institutional reform delayed or missing leads classes and departments struggle of populism for redistribution.Populist struggle makes public spending a ＂common pool＂ to induce the public spending ＂welfare catch-up＂ bias.At the same time of ＂welfare catch-up＂ there is insufficient investment in human capital,infrastructure backward,so ＂welfare catch-up＂ bias results in a ＂middle income trap＂ in economic development.The authors confirm that the ＂welfare catch up＂ in Latin America is the core reason for economic and social development troubles,adding that a delay or lack of reform is the cause of ＂welfare catch-up＂ of public spending.It is concluded that in order to completely get rid of ＂Latin American＂ dilemma in the economic and social development,effective reform to ease class conflicts is necessary.