旅游景区新建公路交通量预测方法研究

Predicting traffic flow of newly-built road in tourist scenic spots

对旅游景区新建公路交通量的预测主要采用4阶段法,但该模型对隐性交通需求反应不敏感,同时也没有考虑到景区本身的环境容量限制,针对不足,文中通过对传统的交通生成预测模型进行改进,突显旅游特性,弥补对隐性交通需求的估计不充分,在交通分布预测阶段以景区环境容量为约束条件进行交通分布预测,并以位于苏州市吴中区的东、西山连接线工程为例给出对旅游景区新建公路交通量的预测过程,并验证模型的可操作性。

The four-stage method can forecast the traffic but it is not sensitive to the latent traffic demand, and flow of newly-built road in the tourist scenic spots, fails to solve the constraint of scenic environmental capacity. For this deficiency, the traditional traffic prediction-generated model will be improved in order to highlight the tourism characteristics and compensate the latent traffic demand. The scenic environmental capacity is considered as the constraints for the traffic distribution. Taken a project in Wuzhong District as an example, its operability is validated.