基于空间自相关的肺结核扩散的机理分析

Spatial Autocorrelation for Mechanism Analysis of Tuberculosis Spreading

目的肺结核是我国重大传染病之一,研究其分布特征与扩散机理对预防和控制肺结核的传播具有非常重要的意义。方法本文以中国大陆31个省级行政区的肺结核扩散为研究对象,采用空间统计学中单变量的全局和局部空间自相关分析、双变量的全局空间自相关分析方法研究肺结核扩散的机理。结果研究结果表明,在时-空关系方面,肺结核的扩散在总体上呈地区间的显著正相关性,且相关性有增强趋势;聚集状况方面得到了肺结核的聚集区域和离散区域的分布状态;社会人文因素影响方面,肺结核的扩散与个人的受教育程度、卫生技术人员数、居民存款、地区GDP、城市绿化率、清扫保洁面积以及人均食品支出呈显著的负相关关系,相关性依次递减。结论空间自相关分析方法很好地研究了肺结核的时空分布特征及其扩散相关因素的影响。本文的研究为有关部门提供了预防和控制疫情扩散的科学依据。

Objective Tuberculosis is one of the major infec- tious diseases in our country. To study the distribution and diffusion mecha- nism of tuberculosis has very important implications for preventing and con- trolling its spreading. Methods This paper studies the spreading mecha- nism of tuberculosis using the global and local spatial autocorrelation analy- sis, bivariate spatial autocorrelation analysis, and with the tuberculosis spreading in 31 provinces in Chinese mainland as an example. Results The results show that, in spatial-temporal relation analysis, the distribution of tuberculosis presents significant positive correlation between regions in general, and the correlation will strengthen in the trend;in aggregation states research, we can find the spatial clusters and outliers. And in social and hu- man factors analysis, personal education degree, the number of health tech- nical personnel, the number of residents＇ deposits, regional GDP, urban greening rate, the cleaning area, and mean food spending show significant negative correlation with tuberculosis spreading and the correlation and sig- nificance with tuberculosis decline one by one. Conclusion Spatial auto- correlation analysis method works well in studying the spatial-temporal dis- tribution characteristics and factors related to its spreading of tuberculosis. These results provide some scientific basis for preventing and controlling the spreading of tuberculosis. Finally, according to the research conclusion, we put forward a few suggestions.