Decomposition laws of tungsten prices fluctuation since 1900 and its applications

自1900年以来钨精矿价格波动的分解规律及应用(英文)

Tungsten current price was transformed yearly to its constant price since 1900, which is roughly decomposed into four components as trend, cycle, impact and random. The core prices, consisting of the trend and the cycle, present regularities that a long-run cycle is embedded within two major cycles, and major cycle is composed of low-price period and high-price period, along with the rapid rise into a tower, and along with deep down into next trough; three sharply upward shocks occur by the events in a tower. Fluctuations in prices trend to slow cycles and expand the bands. It can be expected that tungsten price will highly stand over 17 a, and is is a advice that reducing production and restricting export maybe maintain a high price level.

将自1900年以来钨精矿的现价换算成不变价格后分解为趋势、周期、冲击和随机等部分。研究发现,由趋势和周期构成的核心价格呈现规律,即相邻低谷期和高台期组成一个周期,相邻两周期组成一个长周期。低谷期伴随快速上涨而转入高台期,伴随深度下跌而重回低谷期。一个高台期内与重大事件相伴发生三次大幅向上冲击。价格波动趋于节拍延长、波幅加大。预测钨价将至少高挺17年,建议在此期间少产、惜售以维持高价出口。