1963～2012年长春市极端气温事件变化特征

Variation Characteristics of Extreme Temperature in Changchun from 1963 to 2012

利用1963 ～2012年长春市的最高和最低气温资料,采用百分位阈值法确定暖日、暖夜和冷日、冷夜的标准,采用非参数Z统计量检验法、线性倾向估计法和M-K突变检测方法,研究长春市50年的极端气温事件的变化特征.结果表明,长春市的暖日和暖夜呈现上升的变化趋势,上升速率分别为1.44和5.50个/10a;而冷日和冷夜则呈现减少的趋势,减少的速率分别为1.61和5.35个/10a;同时夜间增暖幅度大于白天;极端温度变化的阶段性特征明显,近50年的暖日和冷日、冷夜存在突变.秋季的暖日增加最为显著,春季次之;夏季的暖夜增加最为显著,冬季次之;而冷日和冷夜的减少主要存在于春季和冬季;四季的气温均在变暖,其中以春季、冬季变暖最明显;2月暖日的增加和冷日、冷夜的减少最为明显,暖夜则在6月变化最显著.

Based on the maximum and minimum temperature in Changchun from 1963 to 2012,the warm day,warm night,cold day and cold night standard was determined by using percentile threshold method,the nonparametric Z statistic test,linear tendency estimation method and M-K mutations detection method were adopted to analyze the temporal and spatial variation characteristics of extreme temperature events in Changchun during the past 50 years.The results indicated that warm day and warm night of Changchun City increased with a rate of 1.44 and 5.50 ge/10 a,while the cold day and cold night decreased with a rate of 1.61 and 5.35 ge/10 a,the heating rate is greater than the daytime heating at night.Meanwhile,the nighttime warming magnitude is greater than the magnitude of warming during the day.In addition,the phase characteristics of extreme temperature changes significantly,nearly 50 years of warm days and cold days,cold nights mutation.The most significant increase of warm day was in autumn,spring followed; the most significant increase of warm night was in summer,winter followed.The cold day and cold night decreased mainly in spring and winter; in addition,seasonal temperatures are warming,in which the spring,winter warming are the most obvious.Significant increase of warm day,cold day and cold night is in February.The most significant changes of warm night is in June.