人民币实际有效汇率、出口与经济增长

RMB Real Effective Exchange Rate,Export and Economic Growth

根据建立的VAR模型,考察了人民币实际有效汇率对出口贸易的影响,进而分析其对经济增长速度的影响。分析表明:短期内人民币实际有效汇率上升对我国出口量和工业增加值增长速度都存在负向影响,然而长期中,则存在着正向影响的趋势。面对人民币升值的趋势,我国企业应该抓住相应的经济发展机遇,并逐步提升企业自身的核心竞争力。

The paper examines VAR model,and then analyzes of RMB real effective exchange the effects of RMB real effective exchange rate on the export trade based on its effect on the economic growth rate. The result shows that rate imposes a negative impact both on the export and the value growth rate in the short term. However,it turns a positive trend in the long run. In the appreciation industrial added the face of the appreciation of RMB,Chinese enterprises should seize the chance of development,and improve the petitiveness gradually.