堆石坝变形监测的灰色非线性时序组合模型

A New Combined Model for Rock-Fill Dam Deformation Monitoring

结合堆石坝变形的特点 ,应用逐步回归方法提取大坝变形观测数据系列的水压和温度分量后 ,用灰色非线性系统模型模拟剩余数据系列的趋势项 ,用时间序列模型模拟剩余数据系列的随机项 ,由此建立了堆石坝变形监测的灰色非线性时序组合模型 .计算分析表明新模型提高了拟合精度 ,使堆石坝变形监测的数学模型更趋于合理 .

In consideration of the characteristics of rock-fill dam deformation, a stepwise regression method is used for the extraction of water pressure and temperature values from observed data of dam deformation. A grey non-linear time-sequential combined model for rock-fill dam deformation is established by use of a grey non-linear system model to simulate the trend items of the data series, and a time-sequential model to simulate the random items of the data series. Calculation shows that the model can improve the fitting precision and rock-fill dam deformation monitoring, as well.