基于层次分析法和证据理论的矿山井下六大系统安全评价

Safety evaluation of underground mine six systems based on analytical hierarchy process and evidence theory

为了建立合理有效的井下六大系统安全有效性评价模型,首先利用层次分析法构建六大系统多层次评价指标体系,借助标度法建立相应的比较判断矩阵并计算其单排序权重向量和组合权重向量;再利用证据理论建立评价模型,采用专家根据各子系统的完善程度及其在安全生产中发挥的作用大小进行打分,并作为证据源,结合组合权重向量得到各子系统基本信度分配函数,运用证据理论中传统证据合成规则融合各条证据,根据融合的基本信度分配函数对各子系统的安全有效性进行分级,最终得出六大系统的安全有效性级别。研究结果表明:应用该模型在某铜矿进行六大系统安全有效性评价,综合评价结果为优,与该矿山的实际情况相符,具有一定的指导意义。

To build a proper safety efficiency evaluation model for underground six systems, the analytical hierarchy process was applied to establish a multilayered evaluation index mechanism. The scale method was put into application for the comparison and judgment matrix building as well as for the weight calculation of certain elements in a single layer and in the hierarchy as a whole. The evaluation system model was then built by the evidence theory. Experts were invited to grade the subsystems according to the maturity and the contribution to safety production. Grades were taken as the evidence source, and the basic probability assignment functions were obtained when the overall weights of elements in the hierarchy were put into use. The probability assignment functions were in turn fused into one single probability assignment function in line with the traditional fusion rules of the evidence theory. Safety evaluation of six-system components was made available by the fused function, which ultimately gave rise to safety efficiency grade of the underground six systems. This evaluation model was applied in a copper mine. The results show that the overall assessment is satisfactory as the actual situation testified. Thus, this model can ensure the underground six-system safety efficiency.