中国与东亚国家制造业边际产业内贸易及调整压力分析

The Empirical Analysis of the Marginal Intra-Industry Trade in Manufactures Between China and Other East Asian Countries and Its Implications of Adjustment Pressure

本文运用2005年和2010年SITC(REV.3)五分位贸易数据对中国与其他东亚国家制造业边际产业内贸易水平和调整压力进行研究。研究根据Azhar和Elliott(2008)提出的边际质量指数测算方法,运用S指标计算了中国与东亚国家制成品的边际产业内贸易水平,并利用PQV指数测度边际产业内贸易显著商品的质量等级,在此基础上,运用边际质量(MQ)指数测算了中国与东亚国家边际产业内贸易显著产品的质量变化,并据此揭示其调整压力含义。研究结果表明,中国在与东亚国家制成品产业内分工中处于价值链的低端;而且,这一趋势在国际金融危机后在不断增强。中国因在产业内贸易中从事低质量产品生产而面临更大的产业负面调整压力。中国应进一步提升产业技术水平,改变目前不利格局,从而推动自身的经贸发展,并最终促进东亚产业内分工体系的良性演进。

This Paper made an empirical analysis on the level of intra-industry trade and its implications of adjustment pressure in manufactures between China and other East Asian Countries. Based on the method of Marginal Quality（MQ） proposed by Azhar and Elliott （2008）, this paper used S index to calculate the marginal intra-industry trade （MIIT） level between China and other East Asian Countries, and measured the quality level of the products whose MIIT Level is pronounced by PQV index. Based on the identified products, the paper measured the change of quality and its implications of adjustment pressure by MQ index. The result showed that China mainly exported the low quality products in the change of Intra-Industry Trade to other East Asian Countries and therefore faced greater negative adjustment pressure, and this tendency had not changed after International Crisis. China should promote the level of industry technology, and drive its own economy forward and the positive development of system of intra-industry division in East Asia.