基于广义可加模型的我国现金投放规模研究

A Study of China's Currency Issuance Scale Based on Generalized Additive Model

从Baumol-Tobin货币需求模型出发,利用2006—2014年2季度的季度数据估计了符合我国货币需求特征的广义可加模型,分析了我国现金净投放与宏观经济指标之间的关系。实证结果表明:现金净投放与实际GDP显示出极强的正相关性,而与居民消费价格指数并不显著,同时存款基准利率和非现金交易结算活动对现金投放具有挤出效应。

According to the Baumol-Tobin money demand model, the quarterly data in the second quarter from 2006 to 2014 is used to estimate the generalized additive model that meets the money demand characteristics of China, and analyze the relationship between macroeconomic indicators and currency issuance in China. The em- pirical results show that a strong positive correlation exists between the net issuance of currency and the real GDP, but not between that and the consumer price index. Meantime the benchmark deposit rate and non-cash transaction activities have the crowding out effect on the currency issuance.