一种人口迁移行为的动力学模拟与结构熵分析

Dynamic simulation and structure entropy analysis of a kind of human migration

人类行为研究一直是复杂系统关注的焦点,其动力学研究主要用以揭示人类行为发生的时空分布规律.人类行为的发生既有个体性也有群体性,目前的研究主要集中于前者.本文在一个二维网格上构建了受自然因素制约的人口迁移模型.结合"推拉理论",模型中侧重考虑了不同区域农业经济发展水平,迁入地数量及区域间距离对迁移人口规模的影响.利用模型模拟了迁出及迁入区人口及人均粮食产量的变化趋势,并探讨了迁移发生过程中的熵变.结果表明,熵变呈先增后减趋势,说明系统人口迁移行为的发生经历了从无序到有序的发展进程.结合人口规模斑图进一步说明人口理性回迁是引起熵减的直接原因.

Studies on human behavior has been a focus problem of complex systems.The mainly purpose of that study is to reveal special-temporal distribution laws of human dynamics.The current studies mainly concentrate to individual behavior.In this paper,a model which can be ruled by natural factor is proposed on a two-dimension grid.With pull and push theory,the influences made by agricultural development level,quantity of immigration areas and migratory distance are considered in this model.The trends of changes in population and food production per capita of immigration and emigration areas are discussed.Change of structure entropy in this progress showed a trend from ascent to descent.The result shows population migration has experienced a transition from disorder to order,and the direct cause of entropy reduction comes from rationally recurrent migration.