摘要
随着自然环境的变化和人类社会的发展,自然灾害的风险必然发生变化。变化着的风险,称为动态风险。该文概述了动态风险研究的现状,指出更新算法和趋势预测法只适于研究惯性型动态风险,没有触及动态风险的本质,进而界定随着综合环境和内在属性的变化而变化的风险才是动态风险。人们所能研究的仅仅是认知动态风险。提出了以"研究综合环境和内在属性变化对风险源和风险承受体的影响"为核心,并对风险源和风险承受体进行耦合的自然灾害动态风险分析基本原理。
With the changes in the natural environment and the development of human society,the risk of natural disasters will inevitably change.A changing risk is called as a dynamic risk.This article outlines the research status of dynamic risks and points out that the update algorithms and trend forecasting methods are only suitable to study the dynamic risks due to inertia,which do not touch the nature of dynamic risks,and we define the dynamic risks with the changes in integrated environmental and intrinsic properties.People can study only the perceived dynamic risk.The basic principles of dynamic risk analysis are proposed.The key tasks are to study the effects of the changes in integrated environmental and intrinsic properties on risk sources and risk-bearing bodies,and how coupling of risk sources and risk-bearing bodies.
出处
《灾害学》
CSCD
2015年第2期1-7,共7页
Journal of Catastrophology
基金
国家重大科学研究计划"全球变化与环境风险演变过程与综合评估模型"(2012CB955402)
关键词
动态风险
认知风险
真实风险
综合环境
内在属性
耦合
dynamic risk
perceived risk
real risk
integrated environment
intrinsic property
coupling
