基于确定性系数模型的地质灾害多因子权重计算方法

CF-based multi-factor overlay method to determine weights of the factors for geo-hazards

地质灾害影响因子权重的确定是区域地质灾害评价和预警模型研究的关键。本文采用确定性系数模型（CF）实现复杂多因子数据的同区间量化,基于CF值直接代表着各因子对地质灾害的贡献这一物理基础,提出了一种基于CF的多因子叠加确定权重法。该方法通过三步完成权重计算：（1）基于CF的地质灾害各影响因子量化,使得各影响因子取值均介于0-1;（2）所有影响因子逐级叠加计算,计算所有因子的相对贡献值;除某计算因子外,其他所有影响因子的逐级叠加计算,得到除某计算因子外的其他所有因子的相对贡献值;（3）通过相减的方法,得到某计算因子的相对贡献值。同样方法分别得到所有因子的相对贡献值,最后归一化处理分别得到所有因子的权重。最后,以区域显式统计预警模型中潜势度计算为例,分区计算确定了地质灾害各影响因子的权重,并以潜势度计算结果进行效果检验,验证了基于CF的多因子叠加确定权重法的有效性和实用性。

Determining the weights of geo-hazards factors is the key to regional geo-hazards evaluation and early warning model study. This paper,Certainly Factor model（ CF） is used to quantify complex multi-factors in the same range. For the physical basis of CF value,which directly represents the contribution of each factor to geohazards,we propose a CF-based multi-factor overlay method to determine weights of factors for geo-hazards. The method is divided into three steps：（ 1） Each factor to geo-hazards is quantified with CF,so that the value of each factor in the range between 0 - 1.（ 2） All factors progressively overlay to calculate the relative contribution of all factors. For every calculation factor,all the other factors progressively overlay to obtain the relative contribution of other factors except it.（ 3） By subtraction method,we can obtain the relative contribution value of the calculation factor. With the same method,we can obtain the relative contribution value of all the factors.Finally,weights of all factors can be normalized to get their weights. In a case study,geo-hazards potentiality parameter evaluation in the early warning model,each factor weight of geo-hazard is calculated. With the result check of geo-hazard potentiality parameter,the method is effectiveness and practicality.