摘要
为研究流域枯水径流概率分布,选择典型的塔里木河流域,采用年最小7日平均流量为枯水径流的统计特征量,利用线性矩法及修正的线性矩法参数估计,并用概率点据相关系数检验法等特征统计量进行拟合优度检验,对比分析了传统的3种三参数分布函数枯水径流概率分布曲线拟合效果。分析得出,三参数广义极值分布在塔河流域枯水径流概率分布拟合中效果最优;另在短序列情况下,用修正线性矩法进行参数估计更为合理。
For researching the frequency distributions of low flow, the 7-day low flow is regarded as statistical quantity and the curve fitting of low flow in Tarim River Basin is carried out by using L-moments and TL-moments ( 1, 0) based on three frequency distributions with three parameters. The Probability Plot Correlation Coefficient (PPCC) method and other statistical quantity are used to test the goodness-of-fit. The results show that the Generalized Extreme-value distribution is the candidate distribution with highest goodness-of-fit in the study of low flow frequency over Tarim River Basin, and the TL-moments is a better choice than L-moment for parameter estimation when there is short data series.
出处
《水力发电》
北大核心
2015年第6期14-17,共4页
Water Power
基金
国家自然科学基金(41371052
U1203282
51269026)
江苏省"青蓝工程"资助及兵团创新团队项目