中国城镇化与城乡收入差距的“倒U型”拐点测度——基于东、中、西部地区省际面板数据的实证研究

Inflection Point of Inverted U-Curve for Urbanization and the Urban-Rural Inequality in China:An Empirical Analysis Based on Provincial Panel Data

基于中国2000—2011年省际面板数据,分析城镇化对城乡收入差距的影响及其地区差异,结果发现城镇化的推进使中国城乡收入差距呈现先扩大后缩小的"倒U型"规律,拐点出现在城镇化率为46.07%的时候,约在2009年出现。同时,由于中国区域经济发展和城镇化进程的不平衡性,城镇化对城乡收入差距的影响存在显著的地区差异。在东部地区,城镇化对城乡收入差距的影响也显著呈"倒U型",不过其拐点与全国相比出现在更早的时期和城镇化水平更高的位置;在中、西部地区,城镇化对城乡收入差距的"倒U型"影响并不显著,中部地区显著处于城镇化扩大城乡收入差距的阶段,其"倒U型"拐点尚未出现,而西部地区有效缩小城乡收入差距的转折点可能会出现的更晚。

This paper intends to study theimpact of urbanization on the urban-rural inequality in China and its three regions. Based on system GMM estimation with the provincial panel data during the period of 2000-2011 in China, the empirical results show that the effect of urbanization on the urban-rural inequality appears the inverted U-curve relationship, the turning point of which occurs in about 2009 when urbanization rate was 46. 07% . Meanwhile, as China＇s regional economic development and urbanization imbalance, the effect of urbanization on the urban-rural inequality appears significant regional differences. In eastern China, the effect of urbanization on the urban-rural inequality also appears the inverted U-curve relationship significantly, while the turning point of which appears in the earlier period and in a higher position of the level of urbanization compared with the national of China. In central and western China, the inverted U-curve relationship of urbanization and the urban-rural inequality is not significant in our sample period. The central region lies in the stage that urbanization expands the urban-rural inequality significantly and the turning point of inverted U-curve has not yet appeared. In western China, the turning point of urbanization reducing the urban-rural inequality may be later than in eastern China.