基于不确定性排放交易模型的空气质量管理

An Uncertain Emission Trading Model for Air Quality Management

点源造成的空气污染已经引起普遍的关注。针对空气质量管理系统存在的多重不确定性与复杂性,基于污染物排放交易规划,研究开发了一个区间随机排放交易(ISET)模型,并应用于空气质量管理问题。开发的ISET模型整合了区间线性规划(ILP)和随机数学规划(SMP)方法,能够处理表示为离散区间数和概率密度函数的多重不确定性以及反映系统复杂性。通过将ISET模型应用到一个假设的空气质量管理案例中,模型应用结果表明:污染物排放交易规划能够实现系统总成本的最小化以及污染物排放速率限值在不同生产企业间的再分配;同时,能够帮助不同生产企业选择合适的污染物控制措施,确定合理的污染物处理量和超标排放量以及污染物排放速率限值分配量,最终生成有效的空气质量管理决策。

Air pollution from point source has aroused widespread concerns. In air quality management sys-tems, due to the existence of multiple uncertainties and system complexities, the study develops an intervalstochastic emission trading （ISET） model to achieve effective air quality management policy making on thebasis of the pollutants emission trading program, the developed ISET model, incorporating interval linearprogramming （ILP） and stochastic mathematical programming （SMP） methods,can deal with multiple un-certainties,as disperse interval numbers and probability density function, and reflect system complexities.The study applies the ISET model to a hypothetical case study of air quality management. The results indi-cate that the pollutants emission trading program can minimize the system cost and reallocate pollutants e-mission rate limits among different production enterprises;moreover,the program can help different enter-prises select the appropriate control measures of pollutants, and determine the reasonable treatment a-mounts and exceed emission amounts of pollutants as well as the reallocation amounts of pollutants emis-sion rate limits, and ultimately achieve effective air quality management policies.