CHADS2评分及CHA2DS2-VASc评分预测老年非瓣膜性心房颤动合并缺血性脑卒中患者短期预后的意义

CHADS2 versus CHA2DS2-VASc scoring systems for predicting prognosis in acute ischemic stroke patients with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation

目的 探讨CHADS2评分及CHA2DS2-VASc评分预测老年非瓣膜性心房颤动（NVAF）合并缺血性脑卒中患者短期预后的意义。方法 调查我院2011年6月至2013年8月老年医学科216例老年NVAF合并缺血性脑卒中患者,应用CHADS2评分（0~6分）及CHA2DS2-VASc评分（0~9分）进行卒中风险评分,分为3组,低危组（0分）、中危组（1分）和高危组（2~9分）,在发病后3个月时,采用改良Rankin量表（mRS）评定患者的预后,将患者分为预后良好和预后不佳组,比较两组临床资料、CHADS2评分及CHA2DS2一VASc评分差异,并进行Logistic回归分析。结果 共纳入符合条件的206例（95.3%）患者,其中CHADS2评分0、1、2~6分组各31、83、92例,CHA2DS2-VASc评分0、1、2~9分组各24、78、104例,预后良好89例（43.2%）,预后不佳117例（56.8%）。预后良好与预后不佳患者的年龄、性别、卒中史、CHADS2评分、CHA2DS2-VASc评分的差异均有统计学意义（均为P〈0.05）。多因素Logistic回归分析显示,年龄（OR：1.23,95%CI：1.07~1.54,P=0.01）、CHADS2评分（OR：1.36,95%CI：1.17~2.36,P=0.00）和CHA2DS2-VASc评分（OR：3.24,95%CI：1.32~6.98.P=0.00）为预后不佳的独立预测因素。结论 年龄、CHADS2评分和CHA2DS2-VASc评分是老年NVAF缺血性脑卒中患者短期预后不佳的独立预测因素;对于老年NVAF缺血性脑卒中早期病情改善的预测作用,CHA2DS2-VASc评分优于CHADS2评分。

Objective To assess the correlation of CHADS2 and CHA2DS2-VASc scores for short- term prognosis in acute ischemic stroke patients with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation. Methods Consecutive ischemic stroke patients with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation who were hospitalized within 7 days after stroke were registered and 206 patients with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation were enrolled in this study. Patients were divided into 3 groups on the basis of CHADS2 scores （0,1,2 to 6） and CHA2DS2-VASc score （0,1,2 to 9） ~ And recovery was assessed by modified Rankin Scale （mRS） at 3 months follow-up （ mRS ≤ 2 reflected good prognosis and mRS ≥ 5 implicated unfavorable outcome ）. After screening the risk factors affecting prognosis using univariate analysis, the correlation of CHADS2 and CHA2DS2-VASc scores for short-term prognosis was estimated using Logistic regression model. Results The proportion of high-risk group was significantly higher （P 〈0. 01 ） while that of low-risk group significantly lower as stratified by CHA2DS2- VASc score than by CHADS2 scores （ P 〈 0.01 ） . Logistic regression model results suggested that CHA2DS2-VASc score was an independent predictor of good prognosis and unfavorable outcome. CHADS2 2, and CHA2DS2-VASc ≥2 were all correlated with prognosis, but multivariate logistic analysis identified only CHA2DS2-VASc≥2 as the independent risk factor for prognosis （ OR = 3.24, 95% CI： 1.32 - 6. 98 ,P =0.00）. Conclusions The average score of CHA2DS2-VASc is higher than that of CHADS2 and has better predictive ability for prognosis in acute ischemic stroke patients with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation.