核电厂动态灭火失效概率模型研究

Research on time-dependent model for analyzing nuclear power plant fire non-suppression probability

为量化火灾模型输入参数的不确定性对灭火失效概率的影响,推动我国核电厂动态火灾概率安全评估(PSA)的开展,基于火灾区域模型、蒙特卡罗模拟与马尔科夫链,建立核电厂动态灭火失效概率计算方法。将此方法应用于某压水堆核电厂一电子配电柜间,结合美国核管理委员会(NRC)修正后的消防队响应计算模型,得到房间内部电缆的灭火失效概率的累积时间分布。结果表明,通过考虑火灾模型输入参数的不确定性得到的灭火失效概率的累积时间分布为指数分布。

In order to quantify the impact of input parameter uncertainties on fire non-suppression probability and promote the development of dynamic fire PSA（ probabilistic safety assessment） of nuclear power plants,a time-dependent model was built,which was based on the fire two-zone model,Monte Carlo simulation and Markov Chain. Taking an electronic cabinet room in a certain pressurized water reactor nuclear power plant as an example,distribution of fire non-suppression probabilities with time was obtained for the cable in a cable tunnel by using the fire brigade response model put forward by the United States NRC（ nuclear regulatory commission）. The distribution of cumulative fire non-suppression failure probabilities with time obtained by considering the uncertainty of the fire model input parameters is an exponential distribution.