基于消息传播的贝叶斯网络推理算法及其应用

A Bayesian Network Inference Algorithm Based on Message Propagation and its Application

近年来,我国的国际地位不断提高,如何在错综复杂的国际战略博弈中始终保持有利位置并争夺战略先机是当前国家面临的重要国际问题。而贝叶斯网络是以概率论为数学基础的图形模式,在不确定推理方面具有较强的优势,因此常常被用于各种决策问题中。论文介绍了贝叶斯网络的基本知识以及基于消息传播的贝叶斯网络推理算法,通过实例演示了基于消息传播的贝叶斯推理算法在战略决策问题上的应用。

In recent years,China＇s international status has improved.How to keep a favorable position in the perplexing international strategy game and get the strategic opportunities is an important international problem for China.Bayesian network is a graphics mode which is based on probability theory.It has a strong advantage in the uncertainty reasoning,so it is often used for various decision problems.The basic knowledge of Bayesian network inference algorithm is introduced based on message transmission.An example is given to demonstrate the application of Bayesian inference algorithm based on message transmission in the issue of strategic decision.