新陈代谢灰色模型在中国碳排放量预测中的应用

Application of Metabolism Grey Model in China Carbon Emissions Prediction

中国碳排放问题已经成为世界关注的焦点问题,预测中国未来的碳排放有助于实现2020年碳减排目标.通过选取2005~2011年中国碳排放数据,利用新陈代谢灰色模型对中国碳排放进行短期预测.模型检验结果表明：相对误差为二级,平均精度为一级,预测结果与实际值出入较小,到2015年中国碳排放量将超过31亿吨碳.针对研究结果,提出发展低碳经济提高能源效率和发展非石化能源来降低碳排放的策略.

Recently,the issue of China＇s carbon emissions has been brought into public focus,and the predictions of China＇s future emissions contribute to achieving carbon reduction targets in 2020.In this paper,from selecting China＇s carbon emissions data between 2005 and 2011,the Metabolism grey model is used to make a short-term predict of China＇s carbon emissions.The model test results show that the relative error for level 2,and the average accuracy of level l,the gap of the predicted results and actual values is not big,China＇s carbon emissions will more than three billion one hundred million in 2015.According to the results of the study,developing low carbon economy has been put forward,to improve the energy efficiency and to develop the fossil energy are used to reduce the carbon emissions.