股票价格对净出口需求的影响——基于美国数据的实证研究

The Influence of Stock Price on Net Exports Demand:An Empirical Research Based on the United States Data

传统经济理论认为,净出口是影响经济增长的三大因素之一,而股票价格的波动会通过影响本币汇率、本国收入以及出口商品价格,进而影响净出口需求。本文基于马歇尔-勒纳条件,从理论分析和实证分析两个方面系统研究了股票价格对进出口需求的影响。研究发现,股票价格对净出口需求在短期内具有显著的负向影响,即股票价格通过影响本币汇率、本国收入以及出口商品价格来负向影响净出口需求,但二者在长期不存在均衡关系。这一结论对于探究股票等资产价格对净出口需求,进而对总需求的影响具有重要的理论与实际意义。

According to traditional economic theory, net export is one of the three significant factors that influence economic growth. The fluctuation of stock price will influence net export demand by influencing exchange rate, local income and export commodities price. The theoretical and empirical research of the impact of stock price on net export demand based on Marshall-Lerner condition shows that the influence of stock price on net export demand in short-term is negative, in other words, stock price has a negative impact on net export demand by influencing exchange rate, local income and export commodities price. However, stock price and net export demand do not have an equilibrium relation in long-term. This finding will be of great theoretical and practical significance in the research of the impact of asset price on net export and then on the total demand.