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汶川地震区地质灾害成生规律研究 被引量:14

Regional assessment on geological disasters in “5.12”Wenchuan seismic area,China
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摘要 本项研究建立了2008年"5.12"汶川地震区62县域(面积约15×104km^2,地理精度1∶250 000,包括四川省48个县、甘肃省10个县和陕西省4个县)和中心区11县域(面积约3.1×104km^2,地理精度1∶50 000,包括四川省10个县、甘肃省1个县)的地质灾害信息系统。62县域地震前编录地质灾害4 913处,占总数的23.5%;地震直接引发10 173处,占总数的48.8%;地震后新发生5 779处,占总数的27.7%。11县域地震前编录地质灾害251处,占总数的3.5%;地震直接引发4 789处,占总数的66.7%;地震后新发生2 137处,占总数的29.8%。根据地质灾害区域发育度、潜势度、危险度、风险度和危害度等"五度"评价理论,分别研究了2008年"5.12"地震前历史积累、地震引发、地震后("5.12"地震后到2013年底)和前三者合计的现状等4个时段的地质灾害区域成生规律。根据地质灾害发育度指数计算结果,62县域地震前地质灾害高、中发育区面积占比11.5%,现状情况下相应的发育区面积占比增加到27.5%。11县域地震前地质灾害高、中发育区面积占比0.71%,现状情况下相应的发育区面积占比增加到11.82%,地震引发作用及其滞后效应是显著的。考虑地质灾害发育度指数、地形坡度、坡向、高程、地层岩组、水文地质、断层分布、地貌类型、地震烈度、年均降雨量、植被盖度、水系、交通线分布、地震作用、汛期降雨和日降雨等要素指标,分别计算出不同时段的地质灾害潜势度指数和不同引发条件下地质灾害危险度指数和风险度指数分布,并按极高、高、中、低4个等级分别评价和编制了相应的区划图。62县域地震前地质灾害高、中潜势区面积占比63.1%,现状情况下相应的面积占比增加到70.5%,地震作用造成地质环境条件显著恶化。11县域地震前地质灾害高、中潜势区面积占比1.21%,现状情况下相应的面积占比增加到18.94%,地质灾害易发区或敏感区面积大幅增加。62县域地震引发地质灾害高、中危险区面积占比为68.1%,汛期降雨引发者面积占比52.4%,单日降雨引发者面积占比26.9%,说明地震、汛期降雨和日降雨引发地质灾害强度是依次降低的。11县域地震引发地质灾害高、中危险区面积占比63.2%,汛期降雨引发者面积占比22%,单日降雨引发者面积占比14.3%,说明高烈度区地震引发地质灾害的作用远高于汛期降雨或单日降雨效应。62县域地震引发地质灾害从极高风险区面积占比11.57%到低风险区的40.57%,呈线性变化,反映了地震破坏相对均匀的衰减作用;汛期降雨和日降雨引发地质灾害高、中风险区面积占比分别为65%和67%。11县域地震引发地质灾害高、中风险区面积占比达62.5%,汛期降雨引发者面积占比为27.4%,日降雨引发者面积占比16.3%,且远离降雨中心急剧衰减,反映了降雨作用的不均匀性和灾害分布的相对丛集性。考虑伤亡人数、直接经济损失和受灾人数3个指标,计算出"5.12"地震引发的地质灾害在11县域造成的危害度指数分布是,汶川、北川、绵竹和青川四县的地质灾害危害度指数均大于10,茂县、都江堰的危害度指数在9~10之间,安县、什邡、彭州和平武的危害度指数在8~9之间,文县的危害度指数为6.68。研究结果可以为汶川地震区地质灾害防治规划编制、区域预警预报、应急指挥部署和土地合理利用等的公共管理决策提供科学依据。 In this paper, an information system is set up for geological disasters in the "5.12" Wenchuan earthquake region. The system consists area of 62 counties with scale 1:250 000 in geography which is of 15 ×10^4 km^2 , 48 counties in Sichuan province, 10 counties in Gansu province and 4 counties in Shaanxi province, and 11 counties in center area with scale 1:50 000 in geography which is of 3.1×10^4 km^2 , 10 counties in Sichuan province and 1 county in Gansu province. The inventory of geo-disasters in 62 counties includes 4 913 cases happened before the earthquake, 10 173 cases induced by the earthquake and 5 779 cases triggered by raining after earthquake, with 23.5% , 48.8% and 27.7% of total numbers, respectively. The inventory of geo-disasters in 11 counties includes 251 cases happened before the earthquake, 4 789 cases induced by the earthquake and 2 137 cases triggered by raining after earthquake, with 3.5%, 66.7% and 29.8% respectively. The regional assessment theory is applied with five grade indexes of geological disasters, i.e. developmental grade, potential grade, dangerous grade, risk grade and harmful grade indexes. The five grade indexes of geological disasters have been calculated for four periods, which are divided as before, instant, after and at present up to the end of 2013 according to timestamp of "5.12" Wenchuan earthquake in 2008. According to calculation results of the developmental grade indexes, the developmental area ratio of the high- middle grade was 11.5% before Wenchuan event, but increased to 27.5% at present after the earthquake in 62 counties. Similarly, the ratio was 0.71% before the earthquake, but increased to 11.82% at present after the earthquake in 11 counties, indicating distinctive seismic excitation and lagging effects. Selecting assessment factors as developmental grade index, landform gradient, slope exposure, stratigraphic layers, hydrogeology, fault density, topographic feature, seismic intensity, average annual precipitation, vegetation coverage, river system, traffic line density of driveway and railroad, seismic activity, rainfall in flood season and daily precipitation, etc. the potential grade indexes of geo-disasters in different time intervals, as well as dangerous and/or risk grade indexes of geo-disasters of different triggering factors are worked out. The four scale of area, such as extra high, high, middle and low, can be divided and draw up severally corresponding subarea maps according three calculation results above. The potential area ratio of the high-middle grade of geo-disasters was 63.1% before Wenchuan event, but increased to 70.5% at present after the earthquake in 62 counties. Similarly, it was 1.21% before the earthquake, but increased to 18.94% at present after the earthquake in 11 counties, indicating a significant increasing in area of susceptible geo-environment. Among 62 counties, 68.1% of dangerous area with high-middle grade of geo-disasters is induced by Wenchuan event, 52.4% of total is triggered by rainfall in flood season of 2013 and 26.9% of total is triggered by the rainfall on July 9, 2013. Among 11 counties 63.2% of the dangerous area with high-middle grade of geo-disasters is induced by Wenchuan event, 22% of total is triggered by raining in flood season of 2013 and 14. 3% of total is caused by raining on July 9, 2013. The results demonstrate that seismic effect is dominant, then raining action in flood season, and the least factor is raining action in one day. The risky area ratios are varied linearly from the high (11.57%) to low (40.57%) grade of geo-disasters, reflecting an attenuation of Wenchuan event action in 62 counties. The risky area ratios of raining induced in flood season of 2013 and raining on July 9, 2013 in same area are 65% and 67% , respectively. In 11 counties, the risky area ratios of the high- middle grade of geo-disasters are 62.5% , 27.4% and 16.3% , induced by the earthquake, raining in flood season of 2013 and one day rainfall on July 9, 2013, respectively, in which the attenuation effects are significant as it is far away from raining centre, and also reflect heterogeneity of raining in crowd distribution of geo-disasters. Based on three factors including casualties, direct economic losses and the people affected by "5.12" earthquake, the harmful grade indexes of geo-disaster induced by the earthquake have been calculated in 1l counties. The harmful grade indexes of four counties are all greater than 10, i. e. Wenchuan, Beichuan, Mianzhu and Qingchuan. The harmful grade indexes of Maoxian and Dujiangyan counties are 9-10.The harmful grade indexes of four counties are 8-9, i.e. Anxian, harmful grade index of Wenxian in Gansu province is 6.68. The above for public management and/or decision in early warning in the region, command and Shifang, Pengzhou and Pingwu. The results can serve as the Wenchuan seismic area, such as geo- arrangement of emergency response and rat disaster a scientific basis reduction plan, ional utilization of land.
作者 刘传正 温铭生 刘艳辉 刘秋强 顾笑筱 LIU Chuanzheng WEN Mingsheng LIU Yanhui LIU Qiuqiang GU Xiaoxiao(Consultative Centre for Geo-Hazard Emergency, MLR, Beijing 100081, China China Institute for Geo-Environment Monitoring, Beijing 100081, China)
出处 《水文地质工程地质》 CAS CSCD 北大核心 2016年第5期1-16,共16页 Hydrogeology & Engineering Geology
基金 国家地质调查计划项目(1212011220125)
关键词 “5.12”汶川地震 地质灾害 发育度 潜势度 危险度 风险度 危害度 "5. 12" Wenchuan earthquake geological disasters developmental grade potential grade dangerous grade risky grade harmful grade
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