中国省域城市承载力测度及提升对策

Measurement and Improvement on Urban Carrying Capacity in Chinese Provincial Level

构建了包括经济承载力、资源承载力、环境承载力、交通承载力和土地承载力的中国省域城市承载力评价指标体系。利用基于熵值法的TOPSIS方法确定指标权重。利用2013年中国31个省(自治区、直辖市)的相关数据,测度了其城市综合承载力和单项承载力。得出如下结论:人均水资源拥有量对城市综合承载力的影响最大,属于短板要素;中国省域城市承载力存在明显的区域差异,基本上呈从东向西递减的梯度分布;各省城市综合承载力与人口城镇化率的位序基本一致,但综合承载力滞后于人口城镇化率。最后提出,提高城市承载力既要统筹空间均衡发展,也要统筹各单项承载力均衡发展。

This paper establishes the comprehensive evaluation index system including economic carrying capacity, resource carrying capacity, environmental carrying capacity, transport carrying capacity and land carrying capacity. Then it determines the weights of indexes by using TOP- SIS based on the entropy method. And it evaluates the urban comprehensive carrying capacities and carrying capacity of every dimension of 31 provincial units in China by using the data in 2013. The result shows as follows：per capita water resources, the factor of short board, has the largest effect on urban comprehensive carrying capacity;there exists significant regional difference in urban carrying capacity,basically show a gra- dient of diminishing from east to west; the sequence of the city comprehensive carrying capacity and population urbanization rate are basically consistent,but the comprehensive carrying capacity lags behind population urbanization rate; to improve urban carrying capacity, the development of space and development of individual carrying capacity all need to be balanced.