京津冀地区碳排放因素分解——兼论“新常态”下的变动趋势

Decomposition of Carbon Emission Influence Factors in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region and its Trend in the New Normal Situation

测算了京津冀地区1995—2013年的碳排放总量并分析了碳排放特征。基于LMDI因素分解法,从产业和地区两个层面对地区碳排放影响因素进行了无残差分解,得到了经济发展是地区碳排放增长的主要驱动因素,能源强度是主要抑制因素。从产业层面来看,产业结构和能耗结构贡献度较小且在三地作用不一致,二者均是北京碳排放增长的抑制因素;二者对天津碳排放的影响在各阶段呈正负交替作用;在2005—2010年、2010—2013年对河北起到了微弱的抑制作用,其余阶段均起到了驱动作用。从地区层面来看,地区结构在各阶段起到了微弱的抑制作用;能耗结构除在2000—2005年起到一定的驱动作用,其余阶段起到了微弱的抑制作用。结合"新常态"的经济运行特点,分析了碳排放影响因素的变动趋势,从区域分工和协同减排角度给出了建议。

The overall carbon emissions of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region from 1995 to 2013 are calculated and its characters are analyzed in this paper. No residual decomposition of influence factors are made from the aspects of industry and region based on the LMDI method. The conclusions that economy development is the main driving factor and the energy intensity is the main inhibited factor are got. In the industry level, industry structure and energy consumption structure contribute smaller and are not consistent in the three places. Both of them are the inhibited factors of Beijing. The impact on carbon emissions in Tianjin are in the alternate states of plus or minus through various stages. They only play weak inhibitory effect in Hebei in the stage of 2005-2010 and 2010-2013 and play driving roles in other times. In the region level, the region structure weakly inhibit the carbon increase in all stages. The energy consumption structure plays weak inhibitory effect except in 2000- 2005. Changing tendency of influence factors is analyzed combined with the characters of the New Normal Situation and suggestions are proposed based on the regional division of work and collaborative carbon reduction.